The GOP is currently proposing a tax reform that would change the tax plan for the first time in 30 years. Even though this has been one of the central political discussions since Donald Trump took office, it is unlikely to be passed for many reasons.
The first reason is the unpopularity of our president. Last time there was a major tax reform was in 1986 under Ronald Reagan. Reagan was a popular president who cooperated with both the left and the right on the reform. Trump has been reluctant to work with Democrats on his proposed reform, which will make it difficult for it to pass.
The second reason Trump’s tax reform will struggle to pass through the Senate is the rise in the budget deficit that would be created with the reform. There is currently a 52-member Senate GOP majority that supports tax cuts, which is the central focus in Trump’s tax reform, but several of the GOP Senators are concerned with the budget deficit. As long as Trump’s tax reform creates a bigger budget deficit, there will be Republican Senators who do not support the reform.
Lastly, the GOP has shown the ability to not support some of the Trump Administration's proposals, such as Senator John McCain not approving the Affordable Care Act repeal. President Trump was very critical of McCain and other Republicans who have not supported him, including House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Leader Mitch McConnell. President Trump will need to reconcile many of these relationships to get a majority approval for his tax reform.
One of President Trump’s biggest stands during his campaign was a tax reform, and it is looking less and less likely that a tax reform is going to be passed any time soon. Unlike President Reagan, President Trump has been reluctant to work with Democrats on the reform, his reform will cause too big of a budget deficit increase and there are too many Republican Senators who have failed relationships with President Trump. Until he fixes these things, there is unlikely to be a tax reform.