In just the past two months, election season has brought its fair share of oddities and surprises, including the June debate between United States President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Trump’s assassination attempt, and Biden dropping his bid for the presidency to endorse Vice President Kamala Harris. But where does the race stand at the moment? Here’s a summary of the presidential election based on what the newest and most trusted polls say going into September.
What to Watch in the Race to 270
In terms of securing 270 votes from the electoral college that are required to decide a president, things are simpler than one might think. Many pollsters surveyed on fivethirtyeight.com say that 43 of the 50 states are essentially already decided. While there are important congressional and local races in these states, it would require a dramatic shift to change the projection for the presidency. This leaves Harris with a slim lead over Trump, with 226 electoral votes to Trump’s 219.
The remaining seven swing states will decide the election. These states, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada, have been the grounds for most of the campaigning of both candidates. What do the polls say about these states at the moment?
Good News for Harris and Democrats
The consensus among top pollsters and experts is that Kamala Harris is taking a slight lead over Trump after a monstrous month of August, where her work in the swing states has paid off. Top pollsters, including 538, Bloomberg News, Fox News, and News Wire US, on average have Harris projected to win in six of the seven swing states. Ever since Harris took Joe Biden’s role as the Democratic nominee, these swing states have followed the Democrats’ momentum.
Even if some of this support wanes, Harris has strong support from what is commonly referred to as the “Rust Belt” states, which are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Among the swing states, Harris has her most comfortable leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a slightly smaller cushion in Pennsylvania. Most importantly, winning these three Rust Belt states gives Harris exactly 270 electoral votes, the magic number for victory. This perfect storm means Harris can lose her lead in the three other swing states and still come out as the winner. While neither party should be playing with their food, this should give the Democratic Party some relief.
Good News For Trump and Republicans
With the Democratic Party’s current momentum, it might look bleak for Republicans. However, they are definitely still in the election. It’s been less than a month since Kamala Harris and her campaign have begun surging, and while her momentum will likely continue, things seem bound to come down to Earth before election day as the excitement settles.
While Trump is only ahead in one swing state, his chances in the Sun Belt swing states, Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, are tossups that can flip. Pennsylvania will also be a close race and a victory there would require Harris to find 19 more electoral votes elsewhere, which would require a combination of at least two states.
Additionally, in the short time since independent Robert Kennedy dropped from the presidential race, Trump has seen trickles of momentum following an endorsement from Kennedy and there could be more to follow. Whether the Democrats start to lose steam, or the Republicans begin to pick up support from independents, the Trump campaign’s best friend is time, and there’s a lot of it left before election day.
Can a Call be Made?
There is far too much time before election day to call this race, as debates, other elections, and more factors will continue to shift momentum of the election. While polling data indicates that Harris is the current frontrunner, the presidential race is undoubtedly too close to call.
